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Fuel prices break pre-excise cut records, and the worst is yet to come

We’re less than halfway through the six-month excise relief period, and in some states, fuel prices have already returned to record levels.

Motorists in South Australia and the Northern Territory have set a concerning new milestone this week, with fuel prices returning to a level higher than before the 22.1-cent fuel excise cut was temporarily implemented as a way of reducing price pain at the pump.

The six-month halving of the 44.2-cent fuel excise tax, between 30 March 2022 and 28 September 2022, saw prices drop to sub-$2.00 per litre levels (for 95RON unleaded) in mid-April.

However, this looks to be a very short-lived reprieve as prices have been steadily increasing in all states, with South Australia and the Northern Territory crossing the previous high watermark for fuel prices at $2.28 and $2.10 per litre of 95RON unleaded respectively.

This is more concerning given we are less than halfway through the excise relief period, which will see a further 22.1c added to every litre of fuel around the country from 28 September.

While other states have average prices still under the pre-excise cut highs, they aren’t far off.

At $2.11 per litre (95RON), New South Wales is only 1.4 per cent away from the high point of $2.14 in March. Victoria at $2.15 per litre is 1.8 per cent shy of the high price point, whereas the ACT is still three per cent shy.

95RON pricing NSW VIC QLD SA TAS NT ACT WA
Lowest $1.85 $1.86 $1.89 $1.83 $1.90 $1.94 $1.88 $1.81
Highest $2.14 $2.19 $2.25 $2.28 $2.27 $2.10 $2.23 $2.12
Average $2.00 $2.02 $2.06 $2.05 $2.09 $2.04 $2.08 $1.98
Latest @ 20/6 $2.11 $2.15 $2.20 $2.28 $2.21 $2.10 $2.16 $2.09
VAR to peak (per cent) -1.4 -1.8 -2.2 – -2.6 – -3.1 -1.4
Latest +22.1c excise $2.33 $2.37 $2.42 $2.50 $2.43 $2.32 $2.28 $2.31

In 100 days time the fuel excise cut will end, and at current prices, motorists will see an average price for 95-octane unleaded of $2.38 per litre.

If prices continue to rise at the current rate that they have since the lowest point on 19 April ($1.88 per litre), we’ll be dealing with prices around $2.50 per litre on September 27 and a hefty $2.72 when the excise discount ends on 28 September.

Maybe hunting down and hoarding tankers of fuel ala Mad Max wasn’t such a bad idea after all!

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