Tesla Full Self-Driving to be “safer than a human” in 2022, Elon Musk claims
Despite numerous videos of Tesla’s new ‘Full Self-Driving’ system veering into obstacles and missing stop signs – amid investigations into road deaths by safety authorities – Elon Musk claims the tech will soon be “safer than a human” – a target he says is a “low standard”.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk “would be shocked” if the company’s ‘Full Self-Driving’ semi-autonomous technology is not “safer than a human” before the end of this year.
The bold prediction was made by Musk – who is known to court controversy to attract headlines – during a call today with financial analysts and media.
Speaking during Tesla’s 2021 financial results presentation this morning, Elon Musk outlined the focus the electric car specialist will place on developing its ‘Full Self-Driving’ technology in 2022 – rather than introduce brand-new models – and its plan to make the system “safer than a human” before the end of this year.
The bold claim comes as the ‘Full Self-Driving’ system (official name) – and the less advanced Autopilot function – comes under fire from regulators and industry analysts alike, amid controversial new modes that promote dangerous driving, and videos of the driving aid steering Tesla cars into concrete pillars, pedestrians and more.
Current versions of the Full Self Driving mode – a $US12,000 option on Tesla cars, and currently only available for use in the US – can accelerate, brake and steer the vehicle on public roads.
Although drivers can take control at any moment, it uses cameras to detect obstacles and navigate its surroundings.
“I would be shocked if we do not achieve Full Self-Driving safer than a human this year. I would be shocked,” Musk told analysts.
“Being safer than a human is a low standard, not a high standard,” the executive said. “People are often distracted, tired, texting … it’s remarkable that we [human drivers] don’t have more accidents.
“Being better than a human is relatively straightforward, frankly – but how do you be 1000 per cent better, 10,000 per cent better? That’s much harder.
“I think anyone who’s been in the Tesla FSD beta program … if they were to plot the progress of the beta, and interventions per mile, it’s trending to a very small number of interventions per mile.
“My personal guess is that we will achieve full self-driving this year, at a safety level significantly greater than that of a person.”
Data for accidents rate with the Full-Self Driving system has not been released – however Tesla claims that in the last three months of 2021, it recorded one crash for every 6.94 million kilometres driven “using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety features)”.
That compares to a claim of one crash for every 2.56 million kilometres driven in Tesla vehicles “without Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and active safety features)”, and the US safety authority NHTSA’s average of 778,922km between crashes, according to its “most recent data” cited by Tesla.
At the end of 2021, nearly 60,000 Tesla vehicles on US roads were equipped with the “beta” version of the Full Self-Driving system, the company said.
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